大连地区气象因素与脑出血发病的相关性研究

Correlation between meteorological factors and cerebral hemorrhage in Dalian

摘要:

目的 探讨大连市气象因素与同期脑出血发病的相关性，为易感、高危人群预防脑出血提供参考依据。方法 回顾性收集2013年1月1日—2015年12月31日大连市3家综合性三级甲等医院首发的脑出血2?560例，并收集同期气象资料。对各气象因素变化与脑出血发病进行相关回归分析，以脑出血日发病例数作为因变量，以每日气象因素变化作为自变量，对大连地区脑出血发病例数与气象因素进行相关性检验，分析各气象因素与脑出血发病间相关性；并进一步对各气象因素变化与脑出血发病进行相关回归分析，建立气象因素相关脑出血发病预报模型。结果 ①大连市脑出血患者的发病趋势呈现季节趋势，即冬季高发，夏季低发，其中12月至次年1月份发病率最高，7～8月份最低。②大连市脑出血发病例数与日均气温呈负相关（r?= -0.292，P?<0.05）、日最高气温呈负相关（r?=-0.284，P?<0.05）、日最低气温呈负相关（r?=-0.293，P?<0.05），与日均气压呈正相关（r?=0.266，P?<0.05）、日最大风速呈正相关（r?=0.073，P?<0.05）。③对各气象因素进行回归分析，建立回归模型：Y日（发病例数）=2.719～0.042×日最低气温（℃）。结论 冬季脑出血发病率升高，且气温下降、气压升高、风速增大时脑出血发生率更高。

Abstract:

Objective To explore the correlation between meteorological factors in Dalian city and the incidence of cerebral hemorrhage in the same period, and to provide a more powerful reference for prevention of cerebral hemorrhage in high-risk groups. Methods A retrospective collection of 2,560 cases of cerebral hemorrhage occurred in three comprehensive tertiary hospitals in Dalian from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015 was done, and meteorological data for the same period was collected. Correlation analysis was carried out on the changes of meteorological factors and the incidence of cerebral hemorrhage. The number of cerebral hemorrhage patients as the dependent variable and the daily meteorological factors as the independent variables were used to test the correlation between the number of cerebral hemorrhage and meteorological factors in Dalian. Correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of cerebral hemorrhage was studied; further correlation analysis of changes in meteorological factors and cerebral hemorrhage was made, and a model for predicting cerebral hemorrhage related to meteorological factors was established. Results The incidence trend of patients with cerebral hemorrhage in Dalian city showed a clear seasonal trend. The incidence of cerebral hemorrhage increased in winter and reduced in summer, with the highest incidence from December to January and lowest from July to August. ② The number of patients with cerebral hemorrhage in Dalian was negatively correlated with daily mean temperature (r?=?-0.292, P?