圆形分布分析陕西省流行性感冒的季节特征

Circular distribution analysis of seasonal characteristics of influenza in Shaanxi Province

摘要:

摘要：目的  分析2006～2015年陕西省流行性感冒（IFV）的季节分布及流行趋势，为疾病防治提供依据。方法  选取2006～2015年陕西省IFV的阳性病例资料，用圆形分布法分析各年IFV流行的集中趋势，并计算高峰日和高峰期。对10年间的IFV优势病毒进行流行趋势研究，并分析其成因。结果  陕西省IFV的流行存在很强的季节性，冬季高发，其中12月～次年2月为总流行高峰期，总高峰日为12月26日。2009和2014年陕西省IFV发病水平较高，4种型别在10年间交替流行。结论  陕西省IFV的发病具有很强的季节性，集中趋势明显，冬季高发，应当加强疫苗接种工作及预防控制措施。

Abstract:

Abstract: Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics and epidemic trend of influenza in Shaanxi Province from 2006 to 2015, so as to provide the basis for disease control and treatment. Methods The data of positive cases between 2006 and 2015 were employed, circular distribution method was applied to analyze the central tendency of influenza every year, the peak day and fastigium were calculated and the causes were studied. Results Obvious seasonality of influenza was observed in Shaanxi Province, it mostly occurred in winter and peaked from December to next February, and the peak day all the year was December 26. The incidence of influenza was higher in 2009 and 2014. And 4 types of influenza viruses were prevalent alternately in the 10 years. Conclusions Influenza in Shaanxi Province has apparent seasonality and central tendency with high incidence in winter. Vaccination and effective precautions must be reinforced.