Abstract:Objective To investigate the relationship between the (neutrophil + monocyte)/lymphocyte ratio (NMLR) and acute exacerbation and lung function decline in elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Methods The 235 elderly patients with COPD in our hospital from December 2020 to December 2023 were selected, among which 141 cases were in the stable stage (stable stage group) and 94 were in the acute exacerbation stage (acute exacerbation stage group). The NMLR and clinical characteristics were compared between the two groups. The associations of NMLR with the disease progression and lung function in elderly COPD patients were determined using the Pearson correlation analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive value of NMLR for acute exacerbation in elderly COPD patients. Factors affecting acute exacerbation in elderly COPD patients were analyzed by multivariable stepwise Logistic regression.Results The comparison of sex composition, age, body mass index, COPD duration, smoking history, alcohol consumption history, diabetes rate, hypertension rate, and hyperlipidemia rate between the two groups showed no statistically significant differences, as determined by χ2/ t - tests (P > 0.05). Patients in the acute exacerbation stage had a higher proportion of those with an Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score ≥ 20 at admission, a higher asthma rate, and higher NMLR compared to patients in the stable stage group (P < 0.05). The forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and the FEV1/FVC ratio in the acute exacerbation stage group were all lower compared to the stable stage group (P < 0.05). Pearson correlation analysis exhibited that the NMLR in elderly COPD patients was negatively correlated with FVC (r = -0.541), FEV1 (r = -0.434), and the FEV1/FVC ratio (r = -0.340) (P < 0.05), but was positively correlated with the severity of COPD (r = 0.589, P < 0.05). The ROC curve analysis demonstrated that an NMLR of 3.62 was the optimal cutoff value, with which the area under the curve of NMLR for predicting acute exacerbation in COPD patients was 0.916 (95% CI: 0.872, 0.961), with a specificity of 89.38% (95% CI: 0.876, 0.953), and a sensitivity of 89.71% (95% CI: 0.879, 0.948). Multivariable stepwise Logistic regression analysis showed that a history of asthma [O^R = 3.758 (95% CI: 1.523, 9.277) ], APACHE II score ≥ 20 at admission [O^R = 3.168 (95% CI: 1.410, 7.117) ], and high NMLR [O^R = 4.522 (95% CI: 1.951, 10.484) ] were all risk factors for acute exacerbation in elderly patients with COPD (P < 0.05).Conclusions The increased NMLR is closely related to acute exacerbation and lung function impairment in elderly patients with COPD, and may be used as biomarkers to evaluate the risk of acute exacerbation and the lung function in these patients.