Abstract:Objective To analyze the associations of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3] with bone metabolic markers and fracture risk in elderly patients with osteoporosis.Methods A total of 106 elderly patients with osteoporosis admitted to our hospital between January 2022 and October 2024 were selected as the observation group. Additionally, 81 healthy individuals who underwent health check-ups at the same hospital during the same period were selected as the control group. Serum levels of 25(OH)D3, beta-CrossLaps (β-CTX) and total procollagen type 1 N-terminal propeptide (TP1NP) were compared between the observation group and the control group, and Pearson's correlation analysis was performed to assess the relationship between serum 25(OH)D3 levels and those of β-CTX and TP1NP. Patients in the observation group were followed up for one year and classified into an osteoporotic fracture (OPF) group and a non-OPF group based on whether they had sustained an osteoporotic fracture. Serum levels of 25(OH)D3, β-CTX and TP1NP were compared between the two groups, and the multivariable general logistic regression analysis was performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to assess the predictive value of serum 25(OH)D3, β-CTX, TP1NP levels, and their combination for OPF.Results The 25(OH)D3 levels in the observation group were lower than those in the control group, whilst β-CTX and TP1NP levels were both higher in the observation group than in the control group (P 0.05). Pearson correlation analysis revealed that 25(OH)D3 levels were negatively correlated with β-CTX levels (r = -0.450, P = 0.000) and TP1NP levels (r = -0.410, P = 0.000). The 25(OH)D3 levels in the OPF group were lower than those in the non-OPF group, whilst β-CTX and TP1NP levels were higher in the OPF group than in the non-OPF group (P 0.05). The multivariable general logistic regression analysis indicated that high 25(OH)D3 levels [O^R = 0.799 (95% CI: 0.642, 0.994) ] were a protective factor against the development of OPF in patients with osteoporosis (P 0.05), whilst high β-CTX levels [O^R = 51.449 (95% CI: 5.418, 488.578) ] and high TP1NP levels [O^R = 1.262 (95% CI: 1.109, 1.435) ] were both risk factors for the development of OPF in patients with osteoporosis (P 0.05). The ROC curve analysis indicated that the combined detection of these three markers demonstrated high predictive performance for OPF in patients with osteoporosis, with a sensitivity of 78.1% (95% CI: 0.600, 0.907) and a specificity of 93.2% (95% CI: 0.849, 0.978).Conclusion Reduced serum 25(OH)D3 levels and elevated β-CTX and TP1NP levels are risk factors for OPF in elderly patients with osteoporosis, and the combined detection of these three markers demonstrates high predictive efficacy for OPF.