某市暴雨洪涝对细菌性痢疾发病影响的 时间序列分析

Effect of floods on morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Liuzhou, China: time series analysis

摘要:

目的 定量评价广西省柳州市暴雨洪涝对细菌性痢疾发病的健康效应。方法 运用时间序列分 析，控制长期趋势、季节趋势、滞后效应和气象因素等混杂因素的基础上，采用季节性自回归移动平均模型 （SARIMA）定量分析洪水历时与居民细菌痢疾发病的关系。结果 研究发现发生洪水月份的细菌性痢疾发病 率高于对照月份。SARIMA 回归分析显示月洪水历时与细菌性痢疾月罹患率呈负相关，月洪水历时天数每增加 1 d，其细菌性痢疾罹患率下降7.7% ～ 8.0%。结论 暴雨洪涝对细菌性痢疾的发病产生明显影响，特别是历时 短的严重洪水相比历时长的一般洪水造成细菌性痢疾发病风险更高。

Abstract:

Objective To establish an appropriate quantitative model to evaluate the relationship between bacillary dysentery and floods in Liuzhou, China. Methods On the basis of time series analysis to control longterm trends, seasonal trends, lagged effect and meteorological factors, the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) model was conducted to examine the relationship between bacillary dysentery and monthly flood days. Results This study showed that the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in the flood period was different to those in the control period. Multivariable SARIMA models showed that monthly flood days were negatively correlated to the monthly attack rate of bacillary dysentery. Conclusions The findings suggest that floods could have affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery. In addition, severe floods with a shorter duration may cause a higher risk of bacillary dysentery than the prolonged moderate floods.